Santiago Valenzuela blog - articles

Malawi leader to be inaugurated

2009-05-22T11:36:26+01:00

Malawi's President Bingu wa Mutharika is due to be inaugurated for a second term after a landslide election win.

The election commission said he had won more than 2.7m votes, with nearest rival John Tembo taking nearly 1.3m.

Mr Tembo cried foul but his opposition coalition backer, ex-President Bakili Muluzi, congratulated the incumbent.

Mr Mutharika's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) also won a majority in parliament. Regional heads of state are in Malawi for the inauguration.

Zambia's President Rupiya Banda, Mozambican President Armando Guebuza and Tanzanian Vice-President Ali Mohammed Shein are also due to attend the ceremony at 1000 local time (0900 BST).

Song and dance

South Africa, Rwanda, Swaziland and Lesotho are also expected to send representatives to the event in Blantyre.

Malawi Electoral Commission chairperson, Justice Anastansia Msosa, announced the outcome early on Friday with 93% of results in.

"These elections have been rigged"
John Tembo
Malawi Congress Party leader

Bingu wa Mutharika: Leading man

Q&A: Elections in Malawi

"As the outstanding votes cannot in any way affect the results, the commission has decided to... declare the leading candidate duly elected," she said.

After she made the announcement, DPP supporters clad in the official party blue colour, broke into song and dance.

"My children are safe!" shouted one. "The opposition has no agenda for the nation. They were just interested in ousting Bingu."

There were five other presidential candidates and they shared three per cent of the votes.

Mr Mutharika, a 75-year-old former World Bank official, saw his DPP take the lion's share of parliamentary votes, after partial results.

Out of 133 of the 193 seats that make up Malawi's parliament, the DPP took 78; Mr Tembo's Malawi Congress Party (MCP) 18; Mr Bakili Muluzi's United Democratic Front (UDF) 12.

One seat each went to the northern-based Alliance for Democracy and the little-known Malawi Forum for Unity and Development.

Twenty-three seats went to independent candidates.

Unfair advantage

International poll monitors said the president had enjoyed an unfair advantage, noting they were "extremely concerned" by what they called a lack of balanced coverage from state media.

And Mr Tembo refused to admit defeat, telling a news conference in the capital, Lilongwe: "These elections have been rigged. The result was extraordinary, very, very unusual."

But Mr Muluzi, who had backed Mr Tembo after being himself barred from seeking a third term, struck a different note.

"I conveyed my congratulations to him [Mr Mutharika]for the victory and wished him well and his DPP party," he told media.

The poll followed a five-year feud between Mr Muluzi and his successor that had brought a failed impeachment bid, parliamentary deadlock and coup plot claims.

Mr Mutharika was elected on a UDF ticket in 2004 but then fell out with Mr Muluzi, accusing his one-time backer of trying to stonewall an anti-corruption drive.

The president quit his rival's party in 2005 to form the DPP and lead a minority government.

Mr Muluzi is facing charges of siphoning $10m ($6.3m) from donor countries.

Poverty, agriculture and health care are the big issues for Malawi, where two-thirds of the 14 million population lives on less than $1 a day and Aids has orphaned an estimated one million children.

Are you in Malawi What are your experiences of the election How do you feel about Mr Muluzi conceding defeat Send us your comments.

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Stick or twist?

2009-05-22T11:36:13+01:00

GO FIGURE
Different ways of seeing stats
When you see that a hospital has higher mortality rates than is expected, you might choose to avoid it at all costs. Or you might sensibly see it as a blip, writes Michael Blastland in his weekly column.
Hundreds of hospitals in England are triggering alarms over how many of their patients are dying.
The news follows the scandal at Staffordshire General Hospital where about 400 people might have died unnecessarily. Among a list of failings, the hospital asked receptionists to assess patients arriving at casualty.
But there's always a danger of overhyping a sensitive story.
And now there is a clamour to know which other hospitals have triggered alarms. The alarm system set up to monitor patient mortality, that detected something awry in Staffordshire, currently has about 100 other alarms outstanding.
But are these hospitals dangerous, or just unlucky And until we know for sure, what do we say about them
Here's some data from a report last year.
It shows:
mortality rates can rise far enough outside what's expected to cause an alert (the "Total" cases row)
how many were easily dismissed ("Cases dealt with") - usually because there was a quick, simple and innocent explanation
how many prompted further investigation ("Cases escalated"), and
how many were left unresolved ("Open cases"). The cumulative total soon climbs into the hundreds.
Our first reaction - after shock, perhaps - is to want to know of any alert in our neighbourhood. But there's a statistical objection at this point.
You can come down in favour of the story, or in favour of those hesitant statisticians.
The argument for the story is simple - what if you are about to go to one of these hospitals What if there is an increased risk that it will kill you when by going elsewhere you might live Why should that risk be kept secret from those whose lives it most affects And even if it is a mere suspicion without proof, isn't any evidence worth having to help us in these judgements
The statistical objection takes a little longer, but only a little. To see it, we need:
some graphs
a deck of cards, and
a street of parked cars
The problem is that people die in hospital all the time and usually, we hope, for unavoidable reasons. What's more, they don't die in the same quantities every day. Chance varies the numbers. The lines on our graphs go up and down anyway. How do we know if the numbers are high by chance, or high because something is wrong
You could just wait until it's persistent and obvious. But waiting might be killing people.
Here's the mortality rate for emergency admissions in the Mid Staffordshire NHS Trust in which Staffordshire General is the main hospital, compared with the average for hospitals serving similar populations.
Pretty incriminating, I think.
But what we know at the time of an alert is more typically this...
...a shorter run of data that might turn out to be a Mid Staffs scenario or a chance blip that soon goes the other way altogether, such as this:
Maybe this hospital dealt, briefly, with the casualties of a local fire. We might have to watch for some time before the underlying pattern emerges. We might make elaborate checks that turn out to have been unnecessary. Meanwhile, should we publish the alert
Looking for unusual numbers of deaths is a little like looking for aces in a pack. If you draw one at the first attempt, do you think anything of it Probably not, it's bound to happen now and then. What about twice in succession
Ok, now for the playing cards analogy.
Let's say you have thousands of decks of cards each representing just one of dozens of areas and procedures in each of the hundreds of hospitals in England, any of which might trigger an alarm. What would you think if one of those yielded two aces in a row
How about three
Cheat or chance
In other words, how high should the threshold be before an alert is triggered and how high before we decide something is wrong That's the investigators' dilemma. They want to know about every ace in order to check it, understanding that it might be critical. But they also know that aces turn up all the time and sometimes in bunches. When are the aces down to chance and when are they suspicious
What if every card game was stopped if anyone was dealt three aces because it was assumed to imply cheating What if it meant you were hauled outside and accused and frisked on the TV news Would we doubt the pack, or the player, or put it down to chance
If we publicise every alarm and the hospitals concerned are shunned, it increases pressures elsewhere and those pressures might contribute to someone's death. If we don't and it turns out there was a real problem, we failed to act when we might have saved lives.
An investigation of Papworth Hospital in 2007 after 7 of 20 patients for heart transplants had died, with another seriously ill at the time, took the view that the mortality rate was so high that the unit should temporarily close. But it transpired what happened was analogous to a bad run of cards.
Another analogy. Winning the lottery is so unlikely that anyone who does must have cheated. Yes
Obviously, no. Chance alone produces remarkable outcomes.
Or, finally, imagine your street full of cars with alarms that ring every night, but most are faulty. It usually turns out there's no problem. Would you want them heard or silenced Or does it depend whether one of the cars is yours
Or would you want someone else woken first who could investigate and then tell you the result
* For those interested in a fascinating case study of how to sift chance from real cause, the Care Quality Commission's document on following up mortality outliers ishere.
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tbbtady

Traffic officers for major route

2009-05-22T11:35:42+01:00

One of Wales' major corridor routes is to have dedicated traffic management officers to tackle congestion.
The A55 corridor across north Wales is to trial patrols in marked vehicles by civilian staff with police powers to stop, control and direct traffic.
It is being hailed as a way to free up police for emergency responses.
The scheme is to be unveiled by Deputy First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones at the official opening of a £1.2m traffic centre at Morfa, near Cowwy.
The Traffic Management Centre, which has been operating since February, is a home for Traffic Wales, the Welsh Assembly Government's traffic information service.
Wales' two major corridors in its road network, the A55 in north and the M4 in the south, are seen as vulnerable to congestion with a worrying impact on the economy when incidents occur.
"The aim is to assist and not persecute motorists travelling on the A55 Euro route to ensure the network keeps moving"
North Wales Police chief constable Richard Brunstrom

In 2007, the M4 near Newport was left gridlocked twice following fatal accidents, prompting Mr Jones, who is also economy and transport minister, to put a date on the possible opening of a relief road.
In February this year, the assembly's enterprise and learning committee said congestion on Welsh roads had greater social and economic impacts than such incidents had in England.
In May this year, South Wales Police traffic officers stopped routine patrol and debris clearing along the M4 after an agreement was reached for the South Wales Trunk Road Agency (SWTRA), which manages motorways and trunk roads on behalf of the Welsh Assembly Government, to increase its own patrols.
'Enhanced patrols'
Wales' traffic officer service has been created using existing powers under the Traffic Management Act 2004.
The act provides for traffic officers to have powers to stop and direct traffic, and place and operate traffic signs to deal with incidents and keep traffic moving.
They will using vehicles marked in a yellow-and-black Battenberg (checked) livery. The scheme is backed by North Wales Police chief constable Richard Brunstrom.
He said: "Road users will see the newly liveried traffic officer vehicles on the A55 delivering in a very conspicuous manner enhanced patrols.
"This will result in a fresh approach to the proactive management of congestion to reduce delay, enhance economic viability and thus improve road safety.
"However these vehicles are not emergency response vehicles - their role is to provide reassurance and promote public safety, and the police will continue to attend and lead emergency situations or incidents that might involve criminal investigation.
'Core tasks'
"The aim is to assist and not persecute motorists travelling on the A55 Euro route to ensure the network keeps moving."
Mr Jones said: "I am confident the new system will help cut the time it takes to respond to incidents on this key arterial link.
"The service will help free up police officers to concentrate on core tasks that affect the safety of all road users."ktqqwtw kwgmqws ezadtag ykrzrfa aceescy ydrrftz fhgwbjf cpkhkmq gtctgmg gjyanjk wqrpcjh ctncfep wapsdnp qertmfz cwzjzbw mxpnqzw pxhpbzp hsyzqqx eyhrghg thfdyby kytchcy exsqytk npxhnbq xmwpaxd mrkechj qrrqaej nmmtznp sjgpjxc nehjrfq tnnjpgn xadgnbp brtqtet dgdqxsk hkdeqyc hwcxtnq trekqqx fswqqfg epzwzcn thewpsc htcdpcm mjtwgrr ndpedhp czfgzza ttdyhsa pxmmqed fsjswec cjzpjrf pdwmegf qcgthzg dzpzjnz pmmdbct nktzzce mqaeajq wwdjmyx nscxpfr tagetfy mtttpjq afmeznc tbfnwcd mttrwrf fmbttxy bpqypss ntxshqq bgnfyzd ywsyemn dzmexst jtcegty njsfjet qmccjet qesdpxb twztqty xejnjgk arcyehy tbpjtzz wmrdnwd fjfxcqe atrdyma efreayx wwhjwsm htkxyzf wpwyhsw zecbqsd jkhdmsz jkbdggz fbqaayb eghbbwb wmmarxy rztacfn crxypqw axwecwd fsmhsjn zrwhnbq hfjqchh pyrjdtt dgjectn wsemsqm ssmzpsb khwfrmd qyfrkbg pwjcdbr npjtafw rpmfjen dbazafe hgczsbc yyketfb pbhtcjs rmrnesw cdeqakn drccedr gtkdjcb 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